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CARB’s most recent assessment of the ZEV program estimates automakers will need to reach less than 8 percent ZEV sales by 2025 to meet the 22 percent ZEV credit requirement.Manufacturers are allowed to carry over excess credits from one year to the next.For example, an automaker selling 100,000 cars in California in 2018 will need at least 4,500 ZEV credits, with at least 2,000 coming from battery-electric or fuel cell vehicle sales.However, this does mean they’ll sell 4,500 electric cars and trucks, as most ZEVs generate more than one credit per vehicle (see below).Assuming the same rate of credit accumulation, there will be over 300,000 BEV/FCEV and about 175,000 PHEV credits in manufacturers' credit banks at the start of the 2018 ZEV regulation.At current credit values and CARB assumptions, this represents credits equivalent to the sale of over 450,000 ZEVs.
In addition, automakers can purchase or trade ZEV credits from other manufacturers.
The credit requirement is 4.5 percent in 2018, which will require about 2.5 percent of sales to be ZEVs.
The credit requirement rises to 22 percent in 2025, which will require about 8 percent of sales to be ZEVs.
Because it only sells EVs and has no compliance obligation of its own, Tesla has produced and sold significant numbers of ZEV credits to other traditional carmakers.
As of October 2015, manufacturers had banked over 240,000 BEV/FCEV credits and 94,000 PHEV credits, enough to comply through 2021, even if ZEV sales remained at the relatively low current rate of 3 percent.